UFC 270 Post-Prediction Breakdowns

Successful predictions: 2/5

Winning betting favourites: 2/5

What went right?

Nurmagomedov vs Stamman:

This fight went exactly as predict. To be fair though, my prediction and rational for it was shared by all affliction wearing bone-heads.

Pereira vs Fialho:

Another fight that went as predicted. I knew Fialho would not be a walk in the park for Pereira, and he nearly put Pereira away in the first round. After finding his groove though, pereira recovered and managed to be dominant in the final round.

What went wrong?

Although I would have liked to have at least beaten the oddsmakers for my first set of predictions, I learned a major lesson that will increase the accuracy of future predictions; the importance of coaching/fight camps.

Ngannou vs Gane:

Though I made note of Ngannou’s enormous improvements in take-down defense in his fight against Stipe, it did not occur to me that Ngannou would be the initiator of takedowns in this fight. This miss could have been avoided had I taken into account of Ngannou’s recent change in coaching.

Another factor that made such a prediction difficult to make was that Gane had never been takedown before in his UFC career, so it was impossible to say how well he would do on the ground.

Moreno vs Figueiredo:

To my shock, Figueiredo was much more controlled and patient only reverted to brawling at the very end of the fight. My prediction was based on the belief that Figueiredo would not resist doing so, thereby giving Moreno the more technical fighter the win.

Much like the Ngannou, I forgot to take into consideration the change in coaching. Henry Cejudo may have been the difference as Figueiredo was able to successfully take down Moreno and generally seemed to be a much more cerebral fighter.

Conclusions

What I take away from this fight card is that changes in fight camp should be taken in consideration when predicting fight outcomes. I’ll be spending some time during the lull in fights over the next two weeks to decide how to weigh this factor in my algorithm.

Other

Giles vs Morales: This fight was truly gut wrenching. In my predictions I named this fight one the easiest calls of the night. Giles had Morales rocked at the start of the round, but for whatever reason did not go in for the kill and instead clinched with Morales. Maybe Giles was afraid of being too eager and getting caught by Morales? In any case Morales recovered and won. If a rematch were held I would bet on Giles again as I still see him as the better fighter.

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